The S&P Global Ratings raised the long-term sovereign credit rating on Vietnam from “BB” “BB+” with a “stable” outlook
27/05/2022
According to S&P Global Ratings, after two years of lackluster economic activities, Vietnam’s economy is poised to expand at a rate of 6.9% in 2022 and will return to the normal long-term trend growth rate between 6.5% and 7% from 2023 onward. The macro-environment is supported by a high vaccination rate, resilient FDI sectors and the re-opening of tourism both inside and outside of the country. However, S&P Global Ratings also expressed concern regarding the downside risk in the unstable global-macro conditions. High inflation and geopolitical conflicts, and the deteriorated health of financial sectors are the risk factor for Vietnam. Moreover, the re-rate decision also reflects the improvement in terms of administrative procedure to ensure the timely payment of sovereign debt. S&P Global Ratings forecast that the fiscal deficit of Vietnam in 2022 and 2023 will be at more than 4%, higher than the average level 3.7% of 2012 – 2025 as Government will implement a VND 350 trillion economic recovery program. Vietnam will also be less exposed to foreign exchange risk as the country’s debt stock has decreased from over 60% in 2011 to less than 40% in 2021. Moreover, the external profile will improve thanks to FDI inflows and tourism revenue from outside of the country.